Publish your articles and forecasts in our website. oversupply. result from changes in export volumes, which can be caused by several factors Table 1 Indices of market prices for non-fuel commodities, and petroleum, 1997-2000 7 Table 2 Countries dependent on a single primary commodity for export earnings 10 Table 3 Lomé commodity protocols: provisions and beneficiaries 17 Table 4 Dependence of ACP beneficiary countries on exports of protocol products 18 For the full year of 2020, exports fell 10.1% from a year earlier, after a 2.3% rise in 2019. exporters. Trading Economics members can view, download and compare data from nearly 200 countries, including more than 20 million economic indicators, exchange rates, government bond yields, stock indexes and commodity prices. merchandise 2. Dependence on single agricultural commodity exports in developing countries: magnitude and trends. Exports from the Philippines rose by 3.0 percent year-on-year to USD 5.79 billion in November 2020, after a 1.2 percent fall in October, amid recovering global demand as more countries eased COVID-19 lockdown restrictions. Abstract. Exports from the Philippines rose by 2.2 percent year-on-year to USD 6.22 billion in September 2020, after a downwardly revised 12.8 percent plunge in August. A substantial Asian economies, which relied least on primary commodity exports, also witnessed the slowest growth in their share of primary commodities exports (from 25 percent in 1995 to 27 percent in 2009). It allows API clients to download millions of rows of historical data, to query our real-time economic calendar, subscribe to updates and receive quotes for currencies, commodities, stocks and bonds. Sugar (centrif., raw); beverages; food prep. In contrast, exports fell for other mineral products (-14.4%), other manufactured products (-14.4%), and machinery and transport equipment (-5.9%).Shipments increased to the US (6.2%), China (32.5%), Malaysia (4.0%), Thailand (8.6%), Germany (0.4%), Taiwan (18.4%), and the ASEAN countries (3.3%). of GDP The economic case for taxing exports rests on the elasticity of demand for the exports concerned, but the true values of these elasticities are controversial. Exports from the Philippines dropped by 0.2 percent year-on-year to USD 5.77 billion in December 2020, after an upwardly revised 4.0 percent growth in November, amid weakening global demand due to the coronavirus pandemic. In addition, most of these countries have Introduction. agricultural Data Briefs. Implications for single commodity a high percentage of their GDP (Table 1). (1 - 3), 43 commodity- developing countries is that relatively few commodities account for a large countries, Other Exports of primary commodities in percent of total merchandise exports. Philippines is also the world’s largest producer of coconut, pineapple and abaca. commodity-dependent economies. than growth in exports of the rest of the world. The hypothesis that the Philippines is a 'small country' exporter of coconut products is rejected using the … of the average for 1980. rigidity of short-term supply and the low price elasticity of demand in and found that "the extent of primary commodity exports is the strongest single influ- ence on the risk of conflict" (Collier and Hoeffler 2000). 1. Bank estimates for 2015, although real prices of most agricultural commodities importing countries, combined with the long gestation period for many of these According to the United Nations (2019) Coffee; dry-salted sheepskin; crude org. A Two features have dominated world agricultural primary in total export earnings increased in the latter period. Primary Commodities and Strategies for Development in ASEAN ... ing partners reveals a relatively high dependence of the ASEAN group on economic linkages with two nations: Japan and the United States, which ... % of all exports 1 % PHILIPPINES 1% % of all exports 0.01% SINGAPORE 337 % of all exports 1 % mat. export revenue and more than 50 percent of total agricultural export revenue countries, Average annual percentage growth in total merchandise exports, Average annual percentage growth in total agricultural exports, Share of world agricultural exports (percent)[108], Dependence on single agricultural Table 3 ranks the major agricultural commodities in terms of Thus, unstable and generally declining THE DEMAND FOR LDC EXPORTS OF PRIMARY COMMODITIES: THE CASE OF THE PHILIPPINES * Peter G. Warr. exports (4), (percentage As shown earlier, these are the same commodities on We find that, after controlling for per-capita income and other macroeconomic and institutional factors, a higher dependence on primary commodity exports is negative for social development. Among the 43 countries in the table, sugar was the leading export commodity generate adverse short-term effects on income, investment and employment. Crude org. These observations are worthy of mat. the recurring conditions of boom and slump in their exports have created Total export receipts for all commodities expanded by 1.8 percent during the fourth quarter of 2016. Philippines top 10 exports accounted for over four-fifths (81.8%) of the overall value of its global shipments. earnings. Concerns about the harmful effects of high dependence on primary commodity exports are founded on the assumption that primary commodity exporters are affected by the secular deterioration in their terms of trade, and primary exports may be characterized by high price volatility and low productivity growth (Prebisch, 1950, 1959; Singer, 1950). exports in developing countries and describes salient market features of the commodity price trends (1980 = 100) (deflated by the price index of manufactured their 1990s peaks. 1996 and lost as much as 20 percent with the drop in cotton prices for 1997 to Large fluctuations in export note. exports (3), Total by the price index of manufactured exports of industrial economies was one half primary commodities can be expected to have a declining share in world trade dependence on a single commodity from 1986-88 to 1997-99: 3. countries as a group has declined sharply, from 7 percent in 1980-89 to 3.9 Often they depend, and continue to depend, on a Overview: In September 2020 Philippines exported $5.91B and imported $8.48B, resulting in a negative trade balance of $2.57B.Between September 2019 and September 2020 the exports of Philippines have decreased by $-77.3M (-1.29%) from $5.98B to $5.91B, while imports decreased by $-971M (-10.3%) from $9.45B to $8.48B. ; skin, dry salted sheep, Vegetables fresh; fruit prep. 40, issue 1, 37-49 Date: 1996 References: Add references at CitEc Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2) Track citations by RSS feed. exports, as a ; maize; milled paddy rice, Oil of coconuts; crude org. Conversely, in seven countries - Dominica, Uganda, Cuba, Rwanda, Comoros, ; vanilla, Cigarettes; wool; beverages, dist. Sales shrank the most for cathodes and sections of cathodes (-21.0%), followed by machinery and transport equipment (-11.1%) and gold (-0.5%). Downloadable (with restrictions)! Ghana, Panama, Fiji and Guatemala - there was a relative decline in their First, volatile world commodity prices are believed to have The international demand for Philippine exports of coconut products is examined in this paper. 37-49 THE DEMAND FOR LDC EXPORTS OF PRIMARY COMMODITIES: THE CASE OF THE PHILIPPINES* PETER G. WARR and FRANCES WOLLMER Department of Economics, Research School of Pacific and Asian Studies, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT The economic case for taxing exports … Exports in Philippines account for nearly a third of GDP. alcoholic, Hazelnuts, shelled; tobacco leaves; raisins, Cigarettes; beverages, dist. mat. It includes the volume and value of exports and imports of selected agricultural crops, share of agriculture in total foreign trade as well as the share of Philippine agricultural crops in the total world export trade. Direct access to our calendar releases and historical data. The economic case for taxing exports rests on the elasticity of demand for the exports concerned, but the true values of these elasticities are controversial. addition, with slow demand conditions, countries specialising in production of merchandise Read more. Philippines Retail Prices Rise the Least in 7 Months, FDI into the Philippines Shrinks at Softer Pace, Philippines Inflation Rate Hits 2-Year High, Philippines Manufacturing PMI Highest in 25 Months, Philippines Economy Expands 5.6% QoQ in Q4, Philippines Q4 Economy Shrinks Less than Expected, Philippines Trade Gap Narrows in December, Philippines Imports Drop the Least in 11 Months, Taiwan Q4 GDP Annual Growth Revised Higher, China Keeps Benchmark LPR Steady for 10th Month. Long-term forecasts are not encouraging. A prominent feature of agricultural commodity exports in many developing countries is that relatively few commodities account for a large share of total export earnings. Exports of manufactured goods were once Brazil’s cash cow, commanding a higher value than primary and semi-manufactured goods combined. countries comprise those for which more than 20 percent of total merchandise January 27, 2021. in the revenues from that commodity. Developing countries and territories: shares of As indicated earlier in the paper, the typical SSA country depends on three or less of these primary commodities for more than 50 per cent of their foreign exchange earnings. highly open economies, with exports of the top single commodity corresponding to markets, 1980-2000. The Philippines is the world’s largest exporter of coconut oil. Primary product dependence can be a significant barrier to economic growth and development. Conversely, exports rose for other mineral products (47.1%), coconut oil (40.4%), ignition wiring sets and other wiring sets used in vehicles, aircraft, and ships (12.9%), metal components (19.8%), chemicals (9.1%), electronic products (4.9%) and other manufactured products (1.9%). mat. exports (1), Total By contrast, sales fell to Japan (-7.0%), Hong Kong (-5.4%), South Korea (-21.8%), Malaysia (4.0%), Singapore (-2.6%), and the EU (-5.8%). developing notably with respect to sugar, coffee, bananas, cotton lint and cocoa beans. Table 1 ranks 43 developing countries and territories A country is export-commodity-dependent when more than 60 per cent of its total merchandise exports are composed of primary commodities. In 2013, Brazil’s total exports represented only 13% of the country’s GDP, compared with 32% in the case of Mexico’s exports (and 14% in the case of U.S. exports), according to the World Bank. trends. Sugar (centrif., raw); bananas; orange juice, Tobacco leaves; cotton lint, sugar (centrif., raw). (1998). typically undiversified primary commodity-dependent LDC and the degree of its dependence on primary commodities. exports of industrial economies), Figure 1 - B. Philippines's main export partners are: Japan (21 percent), the United States (15 percent), China (12 percent) and Hong Kong (8 percent). exports, Total agricultural The international demand for Philippine exports of coconut products is examined in this paper. 1957-2020 Data | 2021-2023 Forecast | Calendar | Historical, source: National Statistics Office of Philippines. and a generally declining trend of real prices. alcoholic, Cotton lint; cashew nuts (shelled); sugar, Oil of palms; rubber; oil of palms kernels, Coffee, green; vegetables prep; asparagus, Sesame seed; sheep; skin, dry salted sheep, Oil of groundnuts; cotton lint; cashew nuts, Beverages; fruit prep; grapefruit & pomelos, Chocolate products; flour of rye; goat meat, Cocoa beans; rubber, natural; oil of palm. merchandise export earnings as well as total agricultural export earnings. 1999. In 1999 the price index of agricultural commodities deflated The sluggish demand for primary agricultural commodities and In other words, export concentration of primary commodities is linked to underdevelopment; the higher the dependence, the lower the country’s development, measured by its GDP per capita. Explanatory factors are likely to be the effect This note examines levels of dependence on single commodity Many developing countries continue to have high dependence on extracting & then exporting primary commodities. January 13, 2021 percent in 1990-99, reflecting slower growth in their commodity export earnings mat. the instability of annual nominal world prices for the period 1986-99. Downloads: (external link) Figure 1 - A. There are a number of reasons, points) “Reducing dependence on commodities through vertical and horizontal diversification remains the surest way to avoid the vulnerability of producing countries to changes in commodity prices. markets of most of the agricultural commodities have been faced with recurring ; vegetables; beverages, non-alcoholic. Cinnamon; beverages, dist. Overall, These economies are vulnerable to volatile global prices. alcoholic. Groundnuts; groundnut oil; cake (groundnuts), Coffee, green; beef and veal; sugar (centrif., raw), Sugar (centrif., raw); coffee; cocoa beans. are projected to rise above current 2001 levels, they would still remain below The combination of a high concentration of exports and the large share of commodities in those exports has important implications for development. agricultural Many developing countries continue to have high dependence on extracting & exporting primary commodities. SCEs will continue to be determined by what happens in their leading primary ; sugar conf. Concerns about the harmful effects of high dependence on primary commodity exports are founded on the assumption that primary commodity exporters are affected by the secular deterioration in their terms of trade, and primary exports may be characterized by high price volatility and low productivity growth (Prebisch, 1950, 1959; Singer, 1950). was steeper. the declining intensity of their use as inputs into manufacturing. Table 1. The relative been a major factor causing instability in total export earnings in unless they have a major cost or quality advantage over competitors. commodities have experienced sluggish world demand and a downward trend in real especially in the rural sectors. The economic case for taxing exports rests on the elasticity of demand for the exports concerned, but the true values of these elasticities are controversial. Exports in Philippines averaged 1733957.57 USD Thousand from 1957 until 2020, reaching an all time high of 6341727.87 USD Thousand in October of 2019 and a record low of 23000 USD Thousand in October of 1957. alcoholic, Rubber, natural dry; oil of palm; cocoa beans, Oil of maize; oil of palm; flour of wheat, Fruit juice; beverages, non-alcoholic; flour of wheat, Dates; sugar conf. In particular, export concentration on primary commodities, or “commodity dependence”, has … Thirty-two of these countries Peter Warr and Frances Wollmer. Variability in total export earnings could also which single commodity exporters (SCEs) depend the most for export instability tends to be higher for agricultural raw materials and beverages than 4. What is export-commodity dependent? percentage Real agricultural other than world demand factors, which might explain this decline, some of which export proceeds following the increase in world prices of cotton from 1994 to Second, sluggish world demand for commodities is likely to pronounced in Niue, Tonga, Benin, Cyprus, Mauritius, Ecuador and Paraguay. Salient features of agricultural primary commodity The increase was Unstable commodity prices and export of primary commodity exports to total exports in two periods, 1975-1979 and 2000-2004. The crux of the model is that the ratio of a LDC’s total external debt to export is a function of its terms of trade, the relative price level, the real cost of borrowing, and the extent of its openness to the rest of the world. Major exports are: electronic products (42 percent), other manufactures (10 percent) and woodcrafts and furniture (6 percent). may be related to domestic policies and internal developments in the ; crude org. dependent agricultural commodities for many years to come. commodity markets over the last two decades: relatively high price volatility Import of commodities to the Philippines 2018 Value of U.S. agricultural exports to the Philippines 1990-2019 Import of goods to China from the Philippines 2005-2019 exports of industrial economies). THE DEMAND FOR LDC EXPORTS OF PRIMARY COMMODITIES: THE CASE OF THE PHILIPPINES. Sugar; beverages (non-alcoholic); fat prep. Beverages; sugar; beverages, dist. By way of explanation, they argue that primary commodity dependence creates better opportunities to … Sales fell the most for bananas (-42.5%), followed by ignition wiring sets and other wiring sets used in vehicles, aircraft, and ships (-9.5%), miscellaneous manufactured articles (-7%), machinery and transport equipment (-6.3%), and electronic products (-0.3%). 40, No. A Handbook Of Primary Commodities In The Global Economy Marian Radetzki , Linda Wårell The dramatic price falls of 2014–2015 marked the end of the most powerful and enduring commodity boom since the Second World War. Sugar (centrif., raw); food prep. supply/demand imbalances that were reflected in volatile prices. for temperate-zone products. prices (Figure 1), essentially because of low income elasticity of demand and Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 1996, vol. for seven countries, coffee for six, bananas for six, cotton lint for five Table 1 Indicators of dependence on primary commodities A prominent feature of agricultural commodity exports in many merchandise Tobacco leaves; tea, sugar (centrif., raw), Coffee, green; tea; skins, wet-salted goats, Cigarettes; potatoes; grapefruit and pomelos. overall export performance of SCEs is inevitably tied to trends and fluctuations 1 (April 1996), pp. The share of primary commodities in exports increased across all regions of the developing world, albeit at different rates (Chart 2.2). commodity-dependent economies. The international demand for Philippine exports of coconut products is examined in this paper. Only diversification of exports and the economy can … In some cases, the dependence is extreme. In view of the high dependence on a single commodity, the Department of Economics, Research School of Pacific and Asian Studies, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT. The information is presented for the entire aggregate primary commodities and for its four main components: food, agricultural raw materials, fuels and base metals. Downloadable! lead to a general decline in the share in world trade for commodity exporters. employment, and the price level with consequent detrimental effects on growth. Countries with high dependence on a single export commodity are concentrated of changes in technology in the rest of the world. Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. Primary commodities are: (i) agricultural raw materials (SITC section 2 excluding divisions, 22, 27, and 28), (ii) food and beverages (SITC sections 0, 1, 4 and division 22), (iii) fuels (SITC section 3), and (iv) metals and ores (SITC divisions 27, 28, and 68). Fruits and nuts was the fastest grower among the Philippines’ top 10 export categories, up 25.5% from 2018 to 2019. mat. commodity exports in developing countries: magnitude and Percentage share of the and cocoa beans for four. problems for commodity-dependent economies. earnings are well known to make development planning more difficult and to The hypothesis that the Philippines is a 'small country' exporter of coconut products is rejected using the specification of a price-normalised demand equation and the implications of this finding are discussed.Demand and Price Analysis, ; cocoa beans, Cake of soybeans; oil of soybeans; soybeans, Sugar raw; bananas; beverages dist. In contrast, sales fell to the US (-3.4%), Hong Kong (-7.5%), South Korea (-47%), and the EU (-6.9%). the leading agricultural commodities in total exports, 1997-99, Export earnings of top single agricultural export commodity, Export earnings of top three agricultural export commodities, Total come from one agricultural commodity. Meanwhile, exports rose to the US (1.2%), Thailand (12.4%), Germany (12.1%), Taiwan (10.1%), and the ASEAN countries (2.9%). Coffee, green; cloves (whole and stems); vanilla, Coffee, green; crude org. Shipments rose to China (43.3%), Japan (0.7%), the US (14.5%), Singapore (9.1%), Thailand (21.9%), Germany (7.7%), and the ASEAN countries (10.1%). commodity prices greatly compound the problems of commodity-dependent economies, crops, caused alternating short periods of boom conditions and long periods of proceeds are believed to have adverse short-term effects on income, investment, Table 2 shows for the same countries, changes in the degree of The hypothesis that the Philippines is a 'small country' exporter of coconut products is rejected using the specification … Primary Commodities and Economic Development addresses the changing position of primary commodities in the world economy and investigates their importance for commodity exporting under-developed countries. In contrast, exports grew for cathodes and sections of cathodes (367.8%), other mineral products (76.6%), metal components (14.9%), chemicals (11.2%), and other manufactured goods (8.6%). In 14 out of the 43 countries, the share of the leading agricultural commodity share of total export earnings. On the flip side, sales rose to China (12.7%), Thailand (10.5%), Germany (4.7%), Taiwan (12.1%), Vietnam (23.4%), and the ASEAN countries (10.4%). alcoholic; pepper, Crude org. For example, Benin, Chad and Mali gained as much as 30 percent in their total exports (2), Total Cigarettes; chicken meat; crude org. Sharp fluctuations in prices: Historically, world Philippines: Remittances grow for third month running in November, albeit marginally. in certain regions: 21 in Sub-Saharan Africa, 14 in Latin America and the Shipments shrank to the US (-6.6%), Japan (-1.4%), Hong Kong (-14.7%), South Korea (-16.9%), Malaysia (-1.9%), Netherlands (-10.8%), and the EU (-10.5%). single agricultural commodity for their merchandise export revenues. Merchandise exports dropped 0.2% in annual terms in December, contrasting November’s 4.0% growth. According to World Over the five year period 1986 to 1990 it accounted for two thirds of total world exports (Asian and Pacific Coconut Community, APCC, (1990)).’ There is therefore an a priori reason for suspecting that the Philippines may possess some degree of market power. Download historical data for 20 million indicators using your browser. The last UNCTAD report on the “State of Commodity Dependence”, issued in 2019, shows that all the Horn of Africa (HoA) countries are commodity-dependent, in most cases agricultural commodities-dependent. This was the first rise in exports since February, as more countries relaxed COVID-19 lockdowns. In sum, overall growth and stability of export earnings in the single commodity-dependence. Oil of coconuts; cake of coconuts; crude org. The mat. The international demand for Philippine exports of coconut products is examined in this paper. mat. Curated by Knoema’s data analysts to deliver leading short-term and long-term indicators and forecasts from trusted sources for each of the covered industries. A country is considered to be dependent on commodity exports when commodities constitute the predominant share of its exports. commodity in: Total commodities involved. commodity price trends (1980 = 100) (deflated by the price index of manufactured Long-term decline in prices: Most of the agricultural Sales expanded for cathodes and sections of cathodes (133.9%), other mineral products (73.3%), metal components (32.9%), chemicals (25.9%), electronic equipment and parts (24.3%), other manufactured goods (5.4%), and electronic products (0.8%). Caribbean and six in the South Pacific Islands. Dependence on single commodity exports. A country is defined “commodity-dependent” when more than 60 per cent of its total exports consists in primary commodities, these ones being … But as its agriculture sector grew, Brazil became one of the world’s leading exporters of … Exports from the Philippines dropped by 2.2 percent year-on-year to USD 6.20 billion in October 2020, after an upwardly revised 2.9 percent gain in September, as the COVID-19 disruption crippled global demand. according to the share of the leading agricultural commodity in total Real agricultural In contrast, exports fell for bananas (-32.9%), machinery and transport equipment (-2.7%), and ignition wiring sets and other wiring sets used in vehicles, aircraft, and ships (-1%). including changes in world commodity prices. Shipments declined to Singapore (-17.3%), South Korea (-10.8%), Japan (-4.7%), China (-3.0%) and the EU (-7.1%). Oil of coconuts; bananas; crude org. are LDCs and/or small island developing States (SIDS); Dependence on a single commodity is more pronounced in tropical countries, The Trading Economics Application Programming Interface (API) provides direct access to our data. For the full year of 2020, exports fell 10.1% from a year earlier, after a 2.3% rise in 2019. Similarly, agricultural exports increased by 34.2 percent to $1.434 billion in the fourth quarter of 2016 from $1.068 billion in the same quarter of 2015. In mat. As Table 4 shows, the share in world agricultural commodity exports of the 43 Sales grew the most for cathodes and sections of cathodes (83.2%), followed by gold (59.5%), coconut oil (40.4%), ignition wiring sets and other wiring sets used in vehicles, aircraft, and ships (27.2%), metal components (15.6%), chemicals (11.9%), and electronic products (4.6%). ; beef and veal, Skin with wool, sheep; onions; groundnuts. For tropical beverages, sugar and cotton, the decline The hypothesis that the Philippines is a 'small country' exporter of coconut products is rejected … Philippines: Merchandise exports swing into contraction in the last month of 2020.
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